Trump and US/Canada NAFTA & Relationships

Canada’s economy is almost totally dependent on US market and private and public Chinese investments. Successive Canadian governments essentially have lazily drained its vast resources without diversifying the economy. The pipeline will make Canada even more dependent on US economy. Because of the lack of economic focus and strategic planning experience, Trudeau is unlike to last more than one term. The only caveat is where a strong US growth in the next few years pulls along the Canadian economy. The reverse, though less likely,  is also possible where strong growth in US sucks the growth and development out of Canada’s economy based on Trump’s protectionist policies. Canada’s real estate market has not corrected for the last 25 years and any crash of that market could literally devastate the entire economy. Canadians families are heavily in debt. Another factor Canadians will have to seriously consider is the fact that a strong US economy will inevitably see the rise of interest rates and further endanger the ‘hot’ real estate market.

President Trump can afford to renegotiated almost every of NAFTA and pipeline in favor of US. He can afford to strong arm the Canadians under the present circumstances. Any tough acting or globalism agenda of Trudeau could easily backfire and therefore he is likely to tread very carefully.

Politically and ideologically Trump and Trudeau are world apart. Amongst all the allies Trudeau is likely  to be the first to speak up against most of  President Trump’s nationalist or America first policies. It may be in Trump’s advantage to see a more conservative government elected in the next 4 years.

 

 

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