It is looks like the election will ultimately depend on the Trump Movement and/or the woman voters. The Trump movement is real and should be taken very seriously. It is unlike anything observed in recent history of U.S. elections. The movement however mainly comprises of White conservative man and to a lesser extent White women. There is some scope for Trump to improve his base amongst the Catholic voters who were recently mocked by Hillary’s campaign.
There are two reasons for Trump’s weakness with woman voters. The first is that Hillary is a woman candidate and second is the portrayal of Trump as a sexist by Hillary’s campaign. The key question is can Trump win without a sizable woman vote?
To address the woman voters question we need to look at the math of the elections. Let’s assume a conservative figure of White voters at 64% and a voter turnout of 60% because of the movement. So for 2016 assuming 245 mil eligible voters, 157 mil will be White non-Hispanic. Of this 157mil, only 60% or 94 mil will vote. 52% or 49mil are women and 48% or 44mil are men.
Hypothetically let’s assume that 60% or 147mil will be the total voter turnout. Also lets assume 80% White men and only half of the White woman are going to vote Trump. This will give him a total of 35+24mil = 59mil. That will give Trump an overall percentage of 40% or what current polls are roughly reflecting. It assume none of the other races are voting for Trump.
The above reflects an optimistic notion where 80% White men and 50% White women are voting Trump and a pessimistic notion that none of the other races are voting for Trump. The number of democrats man are certainly much higher amongst college educated voters and there will be some other races that will vote for Trump.
So how can Trump still win? He could aim to increase his White voter turnout from 60% to 80%. This will increase White men from 35mil to 48mil and White woman from 24 to 32mil. Trump will have 48+32 or 80 mil White voters out of a new total of 178mil voter turnout. This will give Trump an overall percentage of 45%.
So the overall strategy for Trump must be to aim for a very high White men and rural conservative White woman voter turnout to win this election. This is where I think the Trump movement comes in, Trump needs to get all White man to come out in strength and achieve a turnout of 80% or more. At the same time, Republican families need to reconcile their differences and at least ensure that all conservative White woman vote for Trump.
I think the numbers discussed are possible, only if the majority of the Whites in America realize the long term importance of this election to their community. In future, they may never again have a chance to have a majority say at the elections. This election will also determine the crucial balance in the judges at the supreme court.